Autonomy is proven in service work
Floor scrubbers clean without human intervention and are monitored remotely as fleets. Robots clean the windows of a 45-storey tower in New York.
Operators such as Formic and Robonnement show that customers pay for robot hours and outcomes, but each must buy every robot it runs. We are testing whether a marketplace across existing fleets can deliver the same outcomes without owning them.
Untested with customers
The robot arm is a quarter to two fifths of a working robot cell. Know-how and integration are most of the rest.
| Finding | Value | Unit | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The robot is the cheap part | ||||
| Robot arm's share of an installed robot cell's cost | 25–40 | % | Reported | LA NPDT |
| Integration's share of the same cell | 25–35 | % | Reported | LA NPDT |
| Average cobot price | 27 000 | € | Reported | Qviro |
| Full cobot system against the cobot alone | 2–3 | × | Reported | Qviro |
| Renting does not deliver work | ||||
| Humanoid rental in Hangzhou, per day, with an operator; used for displays, film shoots and education | 3000 | yuan | Reported | Interesting Engineering · 2025-03 |
| AgiBot rental orders in its first 3 months | 5500 | orders | Reported | company claim via press · 2026-08 |
| Robot work sells, but only from owned fleets | ||||
| Formic: Series A, plus over $100 million in debt to buy equipment (2022) | 26.5 | $ million | Reported | SupplyChain247 |
| Robonnement: robots bought and operated at customer sites, in 5 countries | 200 | robots | Reported | Robonnement |
| There are many robots, and more each year | ||||
| Industrial robots in operation worldwide | 5 | million | Reported | IFR World Robotics |
| Share of those robots standing idle in a given night or month | — | Open | first interviews | |
First customers: buildings that need floors cleaned overnight. First supply: fleets that come with their operators.
| No. | Who | Pain | Buys | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | ||||
| D1 | Facility managers and building owners (offices, malls, airports); cleaning contractors that need overflow capacity | Labour shortage, night work, one-off deep cleans | Cleaning jobs done by robots and their operators, priced per m² or per night | Medium |
| D2 | Small and mid-size manufacturers with one repetitive task | Upfront cost; doubt that it will work for them | Palletising or machine tending, per hour or per shift | Medium |
| D3 | Events and promotion | Attention | Humanoid appearances | Low value |
| Supply | ||||
| S1 | Fleet operators: cleaning contractors with robot fleets, robot-service providers, rental fleets | Robots stand still between contracts | Bring robots plus the operators who know them | Low to medium |
| S2 | Integrators | Demo robots idle between projects | Bring test robots and deployment know-how | Low to medium |
| S3 | Owners with idle robots and no operators | Capital tied up | Bring robots only; join through S1 or S2 | Low |
Rental platforms list robots and service operators own them. Neither plans a job across many owners' fleets.
The renter still carries the hard part: does this robot fit the task, who integrates it, who runs it, and is it in good condition. Listing sites leave that open; service operators solve it by buying everything.
| Player | Where | Model | What it leaves open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental marketplaces | |||
| Sharebot | US | Peer-to-peer: owners list robots idle between projects; rentals by day, week or month; payment held until the rental starts | Fit, integration and insurance are left to renter and owner |
| RoboShare | US | Matches businesses with owners of idle robots; rentals and service bookings through local partners; announced 2026-07 | No traction published |
| Humanoid rental | |||
| AgiBot rental | China | Rental from the maker, about 3500 yuan per day including shipping and an operator | Robots need an operator; mostly events and exhibitions |
| Qingtian Zu | China | Shanghai leasing platform bundling hardware, content, operator and logistics | Entertainment and promotion |
| Robots as a service | |||
| Formic | US | Owns and runs complete robot cells; the customer pays per hour of uptime | Buys every robot; debt-financed fleet |
| Robonnement | Switzerland, Germany | Buys and operates robots at customer sites for a fixed monthly fee | Buys every robot |
| Skyline Robotics | US | Window-cleaning robot Ozmo on a 45-storey New York tower, sold as a service | One system type, owned by the operator |
| Bayer cobot rental | Germany | Palletising cobots for rent; part of the rent counts toward buying | One task, one owner |
| RobCo | Munich | Modular arms and software for small and mid-size manufacturers | Sells its own hardware |
| Skill app stores | |||
| Unitree UniStore | China | Motion apps for Unitree robots | One maker; mostly dances and moves |
| OpenMind | US | App store for humanoids and quadrupeds from several makers | Consumer and service apps; quality varies |
| UR+ | Denmark | Over 500 certified add-ons and application kits for Universal Robots arms | One maker's ecosystem |
| Cautionary case | |||
| READY Robotics | US | One operating system for many robot brands; raised $41.5 million; shut down in 2024 | Added cost on top of each maker's controller |
At an assumed 15 % commission, one 20 000 m² office building is worth €1800–4500 a month to us.
The value is in recurring jobs in large buildings. First-time setup, such as mapping and elevator access, has to be paid back over repeat nights.
| Step | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Office maintenance cleaning in Germany, labour included | €2–5 per m² per month | Reported |
| Cleaning value of a 20 000 m² office building | €40 000–100 000 per month | Estimate |
| Share robots can deliver: floors, not toilets or desks | 30 % | Assumption |
| Robot-deliverable value | €12 000–30 000 per month | Estimate |
| Commission | 15 % | Assumption |
| Cyberstrata revenue per building | €1800–4500 per month | Estimate |
| 100 buildings | €2.2–5.4 million per year | Estimate |
Price range: clean-invoice, 2026share and commission: our assumptions
Market size, method first
Revenue = sites × cleanable area × price per m² × robot share × commission
We fill each term from interviews and pilots, not from market reports. AgiBot puts China's humanoid leasing market at 1 billion yuan in 2025, rising to 10 billion in 2026: a company projection, mostly display work, but a sign of how fast robot-time markets can grow.
| Revenue line | When |
|---|---|
| Commission on each job's value, assumed 10–20 % | Day one |
| Planning and quotes for complex one-off jobs | Possibly day one |
| Recurring-job contracts on saved plans | Early |
| Verification, financing partners, skill royalties | Later |
Service robots already work alone and report their own work. Deploying them for a specific job is now the bottleneck.
Floor scrubbers clean without human intervention and are monitored remotely as fleets. Robots clean the windows of a 45-storey tower in New York.
Humanoids rent for a few hundred dollars a day and will do more over time. The bottleneck moves from hardware to planning and know-how, which is what we sell.
Formic, Robonnement and Skyline Robotics sell robot work by the hour, the month or the result. Customers already buy this way; supply is what limits it.
If fewer than 3 in 10 customers would buy, or fewer than 3 in 10 fleets have capacity to sell, we change course.
The fallback is manufacturing tasks such as palletising and machine tending (D2). Otherwise we pivot.
| Risk | How we handle it |
|---|---|
| Supply is not free when it is needed; cleaning fleets already work at night | Ask about idle windows first; look for off-peak supply; match on capability × time × place |
| Chicken and egg: neither side comes without the other | Start with fleet operators who want more work; one city, one job type; free job plans and quotes for customers |
| First-time setup is slow: mapping, elevator integration | Focus on recurring jobs; save each building's plan |
| Transport and logistics | Local supply only at first |
| Liability, insurance, night access, labour rules | Insurance partner and standard contracts; safety always stays with the robot and its operator |
| Contractors see us as a competitor | Position as overflow capacity and a planning partner for contractors |
Twelve weeks: 30 conversations, one job planned by hand, three paid pilots, then a choice of first market.
| Planned | Actual | Milestone | Output | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1–2 | — | 30 conversations: 10 facility managers and building owners, 10 cleaning contractors and fleet operators, 10 manufacturers | Pains ranked; idle windows; willingness to pay; outcome pricing | Planned |
| Weeks 3–4 | — | One real job planned by hand: scope, fit check, logistics, sourced fleet, quote | First job plan and planning rules | Planned |
| Weeks 5–10 | — | 3 paid pilot jobs, at least one recurring | Planned against actual time; proof accepted or not; margin; commission tolerance | Planned |
| Weeks 11–12 | — | Choose the first market and pitch | Evidence-based plan | Planned |